黑料不打烊

Global Refining Catalysts Market Trends and Insights

Stricter Global Sulfur-Cap Regulations

The International Maritime Organization鈥檚 0.50% sulfur limit for marine fuels, effective since January 2020, still reverberates across coastal refineries that now hydrotreat residual streams to supply compliant bunker blends. China鈥檚 nationwide China VI gasoline and diesel standards, implemented in 2024, limit sulfur to 10 ppm and forced state-owned refiners to add hydrotreating capacity equal to nearly 1.2 million barrels per day of throughput. The United States Environmental Protection Agency鈥檚 Tier 3 gasoline program maintains a comparable 10 ppm cap, bolstering demand for noble-metal alumina catalysts that reach deep desulfurization under moderate hydrogen partial pressures. Europe鈥檚 Fuel Quality Directive replicates the 10 ppm threshold, reinforcing NiMo and CoMo demand throughout the continent. Overlapping mandates deliver a 0.8 percentage-point uplift to the base CAGR mainly through 2026 as multiple deadlines converge.

Refinery Capacity Build-Out in Asia-Pacific and Middle East

Greenfield and brownfield projects in China, India, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait add roughly 3 million barrels per day of crude distillation between 2024 and 2028, translating into multi-ton catalyst charges for FCC, hydrotreating, and hydrocracking units. Saudi Aramco and China Petrochemical Corporation鈥檚 Fujian complex will consume an estimated 12,000 tons of zeolite FCC catalysts annually at full stride, while India鈥檚 Panipat, Gujarat, and Barauni expansions boost local hydrotreating demand through 2027. Kuwait鈥檚 Al-Zour refinery processes 615,000 barrels per day of heavy crude, relying on NiW and CoMo residue hydrocracking catalysts to maximize middle-distillate yields. The combined build-out contributes a 0.9 percentage-point push to the forecast CAGR, peaking as these new units reach nameplate throughput over 2026-2028.

Rising Demand for Higher-Octane Gasoline and Petro-Feedstocks

Turbocharged engines and hybrid powertrains support ongoing demand for 95 RON and 98 RON gasoline grades even where total gasoline volumes plateau. Modern FCC units equipped with rare-earth Y-zeolites lift octane by 2-3 numbers without sacrificing conversion efficiency. Petrochemical complexes simultaneously prize propylene and butylene, prompting refiners to deploy ZSM-5 additives that raise light-olefin yield by up to 15% in commercial service^{[1]BASF SE, 鈥淶SM-5 Additive Raises Propylene Yield,鈥� BASF Press Release, basf.com} . North American operators follow the same path: ExxonMobil鈥檚 Beaumont expansion, finished in 2024, added 250,000 barrels per day of crude capacity through FCC trains tailored for propylene recovery. The octane and petro-feedstock push adds 0.5 percentage points to the CAGR with medium-term resonance.

Bio-Feed Co-Processing Needs Dual-Function Catalysts

Renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel mandates in Europe and North America force refiners to co-process vegetable oils or waste fats that challenge conventional hydrotreating catalysts. Shell鈥檚 Pernis refinery accommodates up to 30% bio-derived feedstocks by deploying NiMo catalysts tolerant of oxygenates and coking precursors. Topsoe鈥檚 HydroFlex technology, running at more than 10 sites by late 2025, integrates hydro-deoxygenation with saturation reactions to secure renewable diesel yields above 90%. Combined policies under the United States Renewable Fuel Standard and California鈥檚 Low Carbon Fuel Standard mandate roughly 15 billion liters of renewable diesel a year by 2027, generating an incremental 2,500 tons of catalyst demand annually. This driver contributes 0.3 percentage points to growth with long-term momentum.

Volatility in Cobalt, PGMs, and Other Critical Metals

Cobalt prices rose 18% in 2025 on tight supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo, while platinum and palladium climbed 12% amid South African output curbs. CoMo hydrotreating catalysts that contain 2-4% cobalt by weight face margin compression because regulated fuel prices limit pass-through. Platinum-bearing reforming catalysts see similar strain: a 10% palladium rise inflates finished-catalyst cost by roughly USD 50 per kilogram. Suppliers pursue cobalt-free NiW chemistries and accelerate recycling to cushion volatility, yet commercialization may take two to three years. Price swings trim 0.4 percentage points from the base CAGR, with most impact between 2024 and 2026 as refiners lengthen change-out intervals.

EV Penetration Curbing Long-Term Gasoline Demand

Battery-electric vehicle sales reached 14 million units in 2025, removing nearly 200,000 barrels per day of gasoline demand, and the International Energy Agency expects that figure to triple by 2030^{[2]International Energy Agency, 鈥淲orld Energy Outlook 2025,鈥� IEA, iea.org} . Europe鈥檚 gasoline use dropped 6% between 2019 and 2025 as the electric-vehicle share surpassed 25% of new car sales in Norway, the Netherlands, and Germany. China鈥檚 gasoline plateaued at 3.2 million barrels per day by 2024, with plug-in vehicles representing 38% of passenger-car sales in 2025. These shifts erode FCC throughput, cut absolute zeolite volume per barrel, and subtract 0.5 percentage points from growth with medium-term prominence.

Segment Analysis

By Product Type: Zeolites Anchor FCC Economics

Zeolites captured 96.01% of the refining catalysts market share in 2025 and are expected to grow 2.72% annually through 2031. This extensive dominance underscores how the refining catalysts market revolves around FCC operations that crack vacuum gas oil into gasoline, diesel, and light olefins. Rare-earth Y-zeolites remain the workhorse at riser temperatures of 500 掳C-550 掳C, while ZSM-5 additives lifted propylene production. CoMo catalysts are primarily utilized in Asian and Middle Eastern hydrotreaters processing high-sulfur feeds. NiMo formulations are preferred by aviation fuel refiners for kerosene desulfurization. Alumina-supported noble-metal products play a niche role in reforming applications, as the volatility of precious metals limits broader adoption. NiW catalysts are commonly used for residue hydrocracking in heavy-crude regions. Experimental solutions, such as metal-organic frameworks, are also being explored. Clariant鈥檚 planned 2025 launch of a hierarchical zeolite combining micro- and mesopores highlights incremental innovation within the dominant segment.

The upcoming replacement cycle underscores the sustained demand for zeolite formulations, despite the impact of electric vehicle adoption. Asia-Pacific FCC units designed for petrochemical integration are specifying higher ZSM-5 doses, while Middle Eastern residue hydrocrackers are favoring NiW systems with enhanced metal tolerance, contributing to market diversity. Cobalt-free NiW formulations entering pilot trials may eventually capture share from CoMo in diesel hydrotreaters, but commercialization is unlikely before 2028, suggesting a stable competitive mix through the midpoint of the forecast window.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

By Process: FCC Dominance Masks Hydrotreating Growth

Fluid catalytic cracking accounted for 74.91% of 2025 catalyst volume and is set to expand at a 2.77% CAGR from 2026 to 2031, aligning with the refining catalysts market growth pattern in emerging hubs. Hydrotreating processes play a significant role in refining, with diesel hydrotreating being the most prominent, followed by vacuum-gas-oil hydrotreating, kerosene, gasoline, catalytic-cracking gasoline, and residual feeds. China's implementation of a 10 ppm sulfur cap for diesel and gasoline has driven increased demand for NiMo and CoMo catalysts across its national refinery network. Similarly, the United States' Tier 3 rule has boosted the use of noble-metal alumina formulations designed to reduce hydrogen consumption. Hydrocracking is particularly favored in regions such as India and the Middle East, where refiners focus on maximizing middle-distillate yields. Residue FCC remains essential in facilities lacking coking units. The co-processing of bio-feeds is increasingly blurring process boundaries. For example, Shell's renewable-feed run in a hydrocracker employs dual-function catalysts that combine hydrotreating and hydrodeoxygenation, indicating a gradual convergence of catalyst families. 

The role of hydrotreating is expected to grow steadily over the forecast period, as new sulfur regulations and renewable diesel mandates directly expand the demand for catalytic desulfurization. While FCC retains its dominance in refining processes, a growing proportion of its output is being directed toward propylene and butylene production, leading to changes in zeolite specifications rather than overall tonnage. This process diversification supports the refining catalysts market, even as overall gasoline demand stabilizes.

Note: Segment shares of all individual segments available upon report purchase

Geography Analysis

Asia-Pacific accounted for a 52.03% share of the global refining catalyst market in 2025. China and Saudi Aramco鈥檚 Fujian complex will eventually draw 12,000 tons of zeolite annually, and Indian expansions add significant hydrocracking demand under Albemarle鈥檚 USD 45 million contract. Southeast Asian projects in Indonesia, Vietnam, and Thailand add about 500,000 barrels per day of distillation capacity through 2028, broadening hydrotreating and FCC opportunities.

North America and Europe face refinery shutdowns and electric-vehicle-driven gasoline decline. Europe鈥檚 6% gasoline retreat from 2019-2025 and North American unit reconfiguration toward propylene and diesel reshape catalyst specifications rather than spark volume growth. The United States Tier 3 rule keeps noble-metal demand steady, and Canada鈥檚 oil-sands upgraders sustain specialized hydrocracking volume. Yet the refining catalysts market in these mature regions edges sideways as plant rationalization offsets unit upgrades.

In South America, Argentina鈥檚 La Plata hydrocracker, scheduled for 2027, adds 600 tons of annual demand. These incremental additions solidify the region鈥檚 leadership in growth rate terms, even if Asia alone retains absolute volume dominance.

The Middle East and Africa are witnessing a significant rise in demand for refining catalysts with the fastest 2.78% CAGR from 2026 to 2031. Saudi Arabia鈥檚 liquids-to-chemicals agenda and Kuwait鈥檚 Al-Zour heavy-crude platform generate constant demand for residue hydrocracking catalysts. Africa presents long-term upside through Nigeria鈥檚 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery, which when fully loaded in 2026 will require roughly 5,000 tons of FCC and hydrotreating catalysts each year. South Africa鈥檚 Secunda gas-conversion retrofit will lift hydrotreating volume by 15%.